America's Balance Sheet Moving Again as House Equity Falls – Todd Ballenger

The net worth of U.S. households hit a record high $58.6 trillion in the third quarter of 2007 according to the Fed's Flow of Funds report. This is surprising, when you consider that net equity in homes declined in the third quarter for the first time in 16 years. Growth is at further risk in the current quarter. We often speak about managing assets and liabilities and how they tend to move in different uncorrelated cycles.  As house prices drop, growth in stock and mutual fund holdings drove the gain in wealth this past quarter for most Americans.

Net Wealth

Borrowing grew 7.9% from last year - the slowest growth in borrowing since the start of 2001.

Asset grew 7.4% last year. While borrowing is growing faster than assets, the level of assets is larger than borrowing, so there was still a balance sheet increase in wealth.

Household assets continued to grow at a rate of about $5 trillion per year.  Growth in the total value of stock and mutual fund holdings by consumers increased by more than the net equity in real estate for the fourth consecutive quarter and by the largest amount since the first quarter of 2004.

Shifting Demand For Money

Consumers are shifting the nature of their borrowing. As standards have tightend for mortgages, overall borrowing by consumers using credit grew by over a percentage point over the last year to 5.3%. If consumer continue this trend of moving to harder money, they'll increase their debt and lose tax benefits associated with most mortgage borrowing, further creating their own version of the current credit crunch.

Real Wealth May Drop

Housing wealth is likely to decline further. Many believe that the OFHEO 1.8% growth for the year through the third quarter is off, as they use lower priced homes and exclude jumbo properties, which according to NAR and Case-Shiller studies were much lower in the same quarter.

Time To Think Different

Equities are expected to slow in the shorter term, and a decrease in real house values will continue to put pressure on cash flow and spending habits as loan reset to higher interest rates.  A shift is possible as people see housing stall, investment slow, and find the only way to really impact their savings may be to actually save more (meaning spend less).  While this isn't appealing to most, it may be a simple fact of the forces that are lining up... and as we say the timing for good financial education of spending and savings habits around the consumer assets and liabilities will be more valuable than ever.